LATE THIS AFTERNOON: Even with the line to our west we could see some storms and supercells push from south/southwest to north/northeast late this afternoon and early evening.
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TONIGHT:   A line of very strong and severe storms has been moving across the country the last 36 hours. There have been many reports of damaging winds (Winds 60+ mph). That will also be our main threat tonight. There is a decent tornado threat but it will be greatest the closer to live to Mississippi. (Tornado Outlook is a probability %)
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TIMING: This line has been very difficult to time out due to a number of reasons. As of 2 p.m. this is the best estimate for the squall line to go through these areas. The line should be reaching the MS/AL state line around 8-9 p.m. Athens, Decatur and Huntsville around midnight to 2 a.m. Scottsboro and Fort Payne 4-6 a.m..
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Dry For Now But More Storms On The Way This Weekend

DRY HEAT FOLLOWED BY STORMS: It has felt very nice the last 24 hours with dew points in the 60s. A few places east of Huntsville have been in the 50s at times but most of us have stayed in the 60s.

High pressure has been around for the last several days and it gave us our hottest days to date. Our hottest day of the year for Huntsville was on August 23 with a high of 97 degrees. This same high will eventually break down to make way for some decent mid level energy. I say decent because it won’t bring soaking rains to the area but scattered showers and storms look likely.

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Warm Weekend Followed By A Potential Severe Threat

 FROM CHIEF METEOROLOGIST SPENCER DENTON
Updated WEDNESDAY 5:00PM

 

COOL AND DRY NIGHT AHEAD…WARMER ON THURSDAY: Temps will cool off overnight under a clear sky with lows in the mid to upper 40s. It will warm up quickly on Thursday thanks to a southerly breeze. Highs will reach the low 80s. Sun will mix with clouds at times by afternoon.

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QUICK HIT OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOLLOWED BY WARM WEEKEND: A cold front will move through quickly Thursday night between 11pm and 6am. A line of showers and a few storms will move through with some gusty wind. There is no severe threat at this time. Most of Friday will be dry and warm with plenty of sunshine by afternoon.

 

The weather will be breezy and warm for Panoply going on Friday through Sunday. Best chance of a shower or storm is late Sunday evening. Definitely shorts and short sleeve weather!  Highs will be in the low to mid 80s with lows near 60.

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A strong low pressure system will provide a multi-day severe threat this weekend into early next week. See the areas of impact and timing from SPC below.

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MAJOR STORM SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK: A round of showers and storms will move through Monday and Tuesday of next week with that big upper level low to our west. Some of those could be strong or severe, especially to our west. The models are still a little murky on timing and intensity, so stay tuned and be prepared to pay attention to the weather Monday and Tuesday.

 

You can check the specific numbers on the 7 day forecast by clicking here http://www.waaytv.com/weather/7_day/

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Warm Weather And Severe Potential Late Week

FROM CHIEF METEOROLOGIST SPENCER DENTON
Updated TUESDAY 5:00PM

WARM DAYS THROUGH LATE WEEK: Another gorgeous afternoon across the TN Valley with a good supply of sunshine. Huntsville hit 81º and Muscle Shoals made it to 83º. Expect a little more sun early Wednesday with clouds mixing in at times. Highs once again will top out around 80º. Clouds thicken up some Wednesday night with lows near 60. More clouds on Thursday will drop highs into the mid to upper  70’s.

SPC will likely upgrade the hatched area over AR, west TN and Missouri to a moderate risk for storms and/or tornadoes. The line should quickly weaken as it moves into Alabama.

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FRIDAY MORNING STORMS…SEVERE THREAT STILL LOOKS LOW: A cold front will bring a line of showers and storms into the area by early Friday morning between midnight and 10 AM. The severe threat still looks low with the main dynamics with the area of low pressure well to our northwest (see SPC outlook above). Damaging wind is possible west of I-65 toward the Shoals but it’s not a guarantee. I don’t expect severe storms east of I-65 at this time. The severe parameters are marginal but worth keeping an eye on.  The potential energy (CAPE) with the system jumps up to around 1500 with the GFS model but it still isn’t over the top. The shear values are fairly low according to the NAM. See the numbers and charts below.

Below is the Energy Helicity Index from the NAM model. Values around 1 are pretty low, so it’s not all that impressive. 3 or 4 becomes more significant for rotating storms.

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The NAM model is pretty low on CAPE or Convective Available Potential Energy with values around 1000. Other models are closer to 2000. Since it’s a morning event, this number will likely stay on the low end.

 

 

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SLIGHTLY COOLER WEEKEND:  Behind the late week system, it cools off a little withhighs in the upper 60’s to near 70 this weekend. Lows will be in the 40s to low 50s. Saturday looks dry but we may need to introduce a small shower chance Sunday into Sunday night.

WARMER BEACH WEATHER THIS WEEK: It looks pretty mild along the Gulf Coast through Friday with highs in the low to mid 70s and lows in the 60s. Rain chances hold off until Friday night but will linger through the weekend as a front washes out along the coast. It will be slightly cooler down there early next week.

You can check the specific numbers on the 7 day forecast by clicking here http://www.waaytv.com/weather/7_day/

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Passing Showers Overnight/A Few Tomorrow

FROM METEOROLOGIST MERRY PERRY:

Don’t be fooled if you are seeing some filtered sunshine in your neck of the woods.  We are somewhat in the center of this Low pressure system with the showers swirling around our forecast region. 
A majority of the heavy rainfall has shifted East. “Wrap around” showers to our west move in early this evening extending into the overnight as the low pressure systems tracks east.

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MONDAY: Any spotty showers on Monday will be in the morning hours and confined to areas East of I-65. 

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Specific Forecast:

TONIGHT: Cloudy/Cooler. 40% Ch of Showers. Low 42°

MON: Dismal/Cooler. Ch of Rain 30%. High 53°. Low 39°

TUES: Some Sunshine mixed with Clouds. High 64°. Low 47°

WED: Partly Cloudy. Increasing Clouds Evening. 20%Ch of Rain. High 66°

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More showers move in later today

Don’t be fooled by the filtered sunshine you are seeing. We are somewhat in the center of this Low pressure system with the showers swirling around our forecast region. 
A majority of the heavy rainfall has shifted East. “Wrap around” showers to our west move in early this afternoon as the low pressure systems tracks east. If you have outdoor plans today, make sure you have an indoor contingency plan. Keep the rain gear handy!

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-Merry Perry

 

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Mainly Dry Sat/Showers this Evening

FROM METEOROLOGIST MERRY PERRY: (3pm)

Nice and toasty out today with temps holding steady in the upper 60’s to low 70’s thanks to a nice flow out of the south! Enjoy!

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If you are headed out tonight, don’t forget the RAIN gear. Showers (a few storms can’t be ruled out before midnight West of I-65 but nothing severe) move into the Shoals late evening tracking east arriving in Madison Co (Huntsville ~10-11pm), then heavy rain after midnight for all of the Valley.

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The upper level-low associated with the showers that move in tonight will continue tracking east towards the Valley which means rain will show no signs of slowing down until at least Monday afternoon. The low will track just to the south of us, drawing more moisture (showers) into the Valley all day on Sunday so expect  to stay indoors on Sunday or at least keep the rain gear handy if you are headed out. Showers will be widespread tomorrow then tapering off by Monday with only a few passing showers expected for the start of the work-week. We will remain under a nice, thick blanket of clouds at least until Tuesday though.

Specific Forecast:

TONIGHT: Cloudy/Mild. 90% Ch of Showers. Low 54°

SUN: Cloudy/Mild. Scatt’d Showers/Storms (non-severe). High 65°

MON: Dismal/Cooler. Ch of Rain 30%. High 53°. Low 39°

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